The Way This Bizarre Season Shattered the Typical NFL Coach of the Year Mould.

Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward pattern. It commonly functions as a form of apology. We regret we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign predictions.

On paper, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic turnaround is handed the prize. In reality, it sparks an annual argument about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent leadership or simply the most shocking upset.

Yet this year's competition is fundamentally unique. The pool of nominees is remarkably talented. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent division champions fading and recent strugglers improving collectively. During an normal year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the clear favorite. Yet in such a chaotic and entertaining season, he's up against multiple other elite coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical vote could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his rare ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the system rather than going rogue. It is an offense built solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that creates wide receiver targets all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been capable to conjure big plays from nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually every decision – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the building with the kind of hype he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a typical year, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. Yet the current isn't a typical campaign!

The area where his case runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are famously fickle. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term success. However he comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has engineered a dramatic resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has nailed the off-field stuff, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect staff blend of youth and veteran savvy, he hired first-timers. From the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. But Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an early strong beginning, there was a possibility that the season would go off the track. A midseason setback caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year argument has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away since that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him just a single place ahead of peers.

Still