Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Each authors two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
