Escalating War of Words Involving Ethiopian Government and Eritrea Triggers Anxieties of Military Confrontation

Growing worries are present about the possibility of armed conflict involving East African neighbours, the Ethiopian government and Eritrea, as confrontational discourse has ratcheted up in the last month.

What Has Ethiopia Said?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, demands for passage to the sea coast through Eritrea has triggered a fierce rhetorical conflict.

The Ethiopian leader previously announced in last year that his country's sea access was an crucial concern, remarks that Eritrea rejected.

Ties between the two countries have often been tense. After a long-standing struggle for freedom, the Eritrean state, which has a 1,350km (840-mile) sea border, formally separated from Ethiopian rule in the early 1990s, leaving it cut off from the sea.

Five years later, a territorial conflict erupted in which more than 100,000 people lost their lives.

Current Comments from Ethiopia's Leadership

Abiy and military leader Field Marshal Birhanu Jula have publicly asserted ownership of Eritrean coastal city of Assab – some 60 km from the border - and hinted at the intention to capture it through military means.

In early September, the Prime Minister said Ethiopia's "blunder" of losing access to the sea as a due to Eritrea secession would be "rectified tomorrow".

The Ethiopian envoy to Kenya, retired Gen Bacha Debele, said that Assab was "Ethiopia's wealth" and would be restored "using武力".

Eritrean Reaction to the Statements

Despite persistent challenges from Ethiopian officials, Eritrea's reaction has been confined to concise remarks on online platforms from Information Minister Yemane G..

Officials have denied Ethiopian requests for access to the Red Sea calling it "hazardous" and a "toxic agenda" of "expansionism" – a approach of claiming back lost territory.

Government spokespeople cautioned on 16 September that efforts to justify "obvious provocation" would have major implications for the Ethiopian government and its neighbors and is a "boundary that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Defense Activities on the Ground

There have been no reports of large-scale army activities in the boundary zones between the two countries.

Nevertheless, in the country, state television has broadcast graduation ceremonies of many recruits at various military training camps.

The director of human resources department of the defense force, General Hachalu, commented lately in an interview that the military was in a "strong stance" as "many thousands of young people" were enlisting, which he said was "a message to our enemies".

Past Roots of the Tension

For more than half a century from 1890, the territory was ruled by Italian colonisers.

Following World War II, it was then administered by the British administration before evolving into a integrated region of Ethiopia.

Yet in 1962 the Ethiopian emperor terminated this system and the region became fully incorporated into Ethiopia.

A thirty-year civil war occurred, concluding with the government's loss in 1991. Sovereignty was then approved by Eritreans in a vote in 1993.

For a few years in the 1990s, there were good relations between the governments in Addis Ababa and Asmara, but they clashed over the specific demarcation of their shared boundary, resulting in hostilities in 1998.

Even though this ended in a ceasefire agreement in 2000, it was partially applied, and the both countries remained at loggerheads.

This changed in 2018, when the Prime Minister made approaches to Eritrea's leader President Isaias. The both leaders agreed to a declaration that the hostilities was finished – a decision that gained Abiy the international recognition.

The neighboring states were then partners in Ethiopia's previous civil war in the northern region.

But ties have later worsened again.